Images: Eumetsat + Univ. of Dundee UK (Click on images for larger view.)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 39.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 40.3E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST EQUTORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
- JTWC + Univ. Dundee UK
