Climate: It’s about to get worse

Cape Town - Climate change impacts are already evident across the US and are expected to become “increasingly disruptive” throughout this century and beyond, the most comprehensive US government report of its kind has warned. 

The third national climate assessment, released this month, says climate change threatens US human health and well-being in many ways, including more extreme weather events and wildfires, decreased air quality, and diseases transmitted by insects, food and water. 

Climate scientists, environmental activists and politicians – especially those in the Third World deemed most vulnerable to climate change impact, like many African countries – hope the report will mark a sea change in US attitudes to negotiations for a new global climate change treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. 

The US did not ratify the protocol and is seen as the major spoiler in negotiations at successive Conference of Parties (COPs) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Convention. Current negotiations are due to culminate in the signing of a major new climate agreement at COP2 in Paris in December next year. 

Professor Bruce Hewitson, holder of a research chair in climate change at UCT and a lead author of the 5th Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says the US report is “perhaps one of the most strongly worded documents to emerge from within the formal US processes”. 

“Coming on the back of the definitive IPCC reports, which are likewise more strongly phrased than ever before, this shows that at last the message seems to have penetrated. Whether it’s too late remains an open question, pending what COP21 does in Paris 2015.” 

Hewitson says while the US assessment reflects a stronger scientific robustness on the regional consequences of climate change, it’s been released into “a highly polarised (US) society”. 

“The initial responses to the report seem to indicate that the polarisation in the US society has, if anything, dug in even deeper, if the mocking tone of the minority denialist community’s responses are anything to go by.”

 

Professor Harald Winkler of UCT’s Energy Research Centre and a lead author on IPCC reports, says the assessment is “an impressive publication, presenting clear information that climate change is real”. 

“To any rational person, this will strongly reinforce that solutions are needed from all countries, including the US as the most powerful nation on Earth, and therefore able to take more ambitious action than others. However, it seems unlikely further information will change entrenched views among a wide range of actors in the US in favour of climate action. 

While the national climate assessment should be a game changer, my expectation is that it probably won’t be, certainly not to the extent of the US taking the drastic cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions required by science and equity.” 

- Cape Argus

Erratic SA weather patterns highlight need for effective business risk planning

The city of Johannesburg came to a standstill as a result of the heavy rain experienced in the region at the beginning of March, more than double the usual average for the month in less than two weeks. According to John Kerby, Corporate Accounts Director at RBS, these erratic weather patterns highlight the need for businesses across the country to implement stringent risk management policies, as it seems that traditional seasonal weather patterns are no longer dependable.

Kerby says that many business owners suffered millions of Rands worth of loss as a result of damage to property, loss of income due to business interruption and vehicle and fleet damage. “Should these businesses not have the correct cover in place it is unlikely that they are able to survive these losses.

“The recent unexpected and extreme weather patterns also highlighted the range of risks businesses are exposed to daily. These risks are extremely diverse and specialised, depending on the sector in which a business operates in. Such incidences have resulted in the term ‘risk management’ taking on a significantly new level of importance, especially as the country continues to witness changing weather patterns.”

He says as businesses in the Western Cape will soon face the usual extreme winter conditions, it is of utmost importance for businesses in the area to review insurance and risk management policies, in order to avoid the extreme losses that their counterparts in Gauteng recently encountered.

Kerby explains that there are some instances that a business is unable to manage or predict the risks over a period of time and this then calls for the business to cover every possible eventuality, which includes considering the focus and depth of the cover needed.

As an example, Kerby points to a recent announcement by Sun International during this period that due to the on-going rain and flash floods experienced at Sun City, the Gary Player Country Club, as well as the Lost City Golf Course were to remain closed for seven days due to extensive structural damage to both courses.

“In the case of a golf course, a loss of revenue would be experienced from having to both refund players for games booked that week, as well as not being able to accept new business. There could also be knock-on losses for associated facilities, such as for the establishment’s accommodation and food and beverage departments as a result of this occurrence. The establishment would also face the cost of having to repair property damage sustained by the weather.

Kerby says regardless of the business’s field, poor risk management policies may leave an organisation vulnerable to major long-term setbacks, or even worse, insolvency and bankruptcy. “Incorrectly structured policies and incorrect business interruption calculations could mean the business is underinsured, so it is advised that businesses consult an expert when putting these policies in place.

He says that while a business may manage to survive an initial loss as a result of business interruption, continued loss of revenue from the second, or perhaps third interruption could be detrimental to revenues. “It is crucial that the correct policies are put in place by businesses, regardless of the sector they operate in or size of business, and that the correct calculations are done in terms of depth and focus to ensure that the business is sufficiently covered,” concludes Kerby.

- Cape Business News,

Long-Term Climate Warming Trend Sustained in 2013

Jan. 21, 2014:  NASA scientists say 2013 tied with 2009 and 2006 for the seventh warmest year since 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. With the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the warmest years on record.

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, which analyzes global surface temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated report Tuesday on temperatures around the globe in 2013. The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience temperatures warmer than those measured several decades ago.

"Long-term trends in surface temperatures are unusual and 2013 adds to the evidence for ongoing climate change," GISS climatologist Gavin Schmidt said. "While one year or one season can be affected by random weather events, this analysis shows the necessity for continued, long-term monitoring."

The average temperature in 2013 was 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 Celsius), which is 1.1 F (0.6 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline. The average global temperature has risen about 1.4 degrees F (0.8 C) since 1880, according to the new analysis. Exact rankings for individual years are sensitive to data inputs and analysis methods.

Scientists emphasize that weather patterns always will cause fluctuations in average temperatures from year to year, but the continued increases in greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere are driving a long-term rise in global temperatures. Each successive year will not necessarily be warmer than the year before, but with the current level of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect each successive decade to be warmer than the previous.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps heat and plays a major role in controlling changes to Earth's climate. It occurs naturally and also is emitted by the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Driven by increasing man-made emissions, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere presently is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years.

The carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was about 285 parts per million in 1880, the first year in the GISS temperature record. By 1960, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, was about 315 parts per million. This measurement peaked last year at more than 400 parts per million.
While the world experienced relatively warm temperatures in 2013, the continental United States experienced the 42nd warmest year on record, according to GISS analysis. For some other countries, such as Australia, 2013 was the hottest year on record.

The temperature analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea-surface temperature, and Antarctic research station measurements, taking into account station history and urban heat island effects. Software is used to calculate the difference between surface temperature in a given month and the average temperature for the same place from 1951 to 1980. This three-decade period functions as a baseline for the analysis. It has been 38 years since the recording of a year of cooler than average temperatures.

The GISS temperature record is one of several global temperature analyses, along with those produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. These three primary records use slightly different methods, but overall, their trends show close agreement.

Credits:

Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

More information:

For images related to the data, visit: http://go.nasa.gov/1ekwJaf