GFS Medium Range Forecasts of Vertical Velocity and Precipitation: Southern Cape and Garden Route Area. (Period: 15 - 17 November 2013)

Forecast models reflect very heavy rain, gale force winds and possible thunderstorms for parts of the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area for the period 15 - 17 November 2013 however it is still to early to give an exact indication of specific areas and the intensity of the system.  The possibility of the formation of a cut-off low cannot be excluded and will need to be monitored closely.  Heavy rain in access of 100mm is predicted for parts of the  Southern Cape.

The custom GFS chart shows the average rainfall (in mm/day) for the 36 hour period.  Up to 200mm rain is forecast for the Tsitsikama Area.  I am convinced that the amount of rain will likely change in later model runs. Needless to say with this amount of rain flooding will be a real possibility if the amount of rain forecasted do fall.

I will be leaving for Bloemfontein on Saturday, 16 November 2013 to hopefully chase a few thunderstorms in the coming days..   Not being where the action is will unfortunately result in the fact that real time weather observation in Mossel Bay will be difficult if not impossible.  More info and updates to follow in this regard.