Final Update/Summary - Cold Fronts: Western-, Northern-, Eastern-, and Southern Cape 16 - 21 July 2014

We still have cold air in circulation, rough seas and strong wind over parts of  South Africa.  See: http://mosselbayweather.blogspot.com/2014/07/sa-national-severe-weather-observations_20.html

This is what MSBWX expected from these cold fronts:

1.  Always the possibility of Severe Weather
2.  Moderate to heavy rain
3.  Strong to near gale force winds
4.  Possible Flooding
5.  Cold weather conditions
6.  10% chance of light snowfalls over the high mountains
7.  Veldfires 
8.  Rough Seas (4 - 6m today but increase to >9m along the EC Coast by late tomorrow and Saturday)
9.  Possible storm damage
10.  Bergwind conditions ahead of the first cold front 

Herewith some feedback:

Always the possibility of Severe Weather:

N3 Toll Concession @N3Route #VanReenenPass: W Station Alert: Wind gust threshold reached at 141km/h.

Moderate to heavy rain :

18 July 2014 -  Kirstenbosch 43mm, Paarl 28mm, Molteno Reservoir (CT) 25mm, Bellville 23mm, Franschhoek 23mm, Jonkershoek 23mm, SAAO Observatory 22mm, Cape Town Airport (W/O) 21mm, Tulbagh 20mm, etc. Many other places in the SW-Cape received between 10-20mm. Also of note were Nieuwoudtville (NC) 14mm and Springbok (NC) 13mm. - SAWS

Strong to near gale force winds:

Image: Wind ripping Tautliners apart in Van Reenens - Truck and Cargo

• Gale Force Wind - N3 Toll Concession @N3Route #VanReenenPass: W Station Alert: Wind gust threshold reached at 141km/h.  
• Strong Wind -  SA Weather Reports @SAWXREP  ·  Jul 17 12h15 SAST Mossel Bay WX Update: WNW wind gusting at 36 km/h at times. 6/8 Cloud cover. Temp 20 Deg/C Baro: 1006 mb 
• 2014 Aerobatic Championships- MSB Airfield WX Update: Wind Speed: 18 - 49 km/h, Wind NNW, Temp 19.8 Deg/C Baro 1005 mb CB Alt 990Ft Hum 86%

Possible Flooding :   

Cape Town Flooding - Cape Town FMS

Cold weather conditions:

No reports of very intense cold weather conditions have been received although light snowfalls were reported.

10% chance of light snowfalls over the high mountains:

Snow Report SA ‏@SnowReportSA

We have a little snow on the ground at Solaris just outside Sutherland this morning. :)

 Mossel Bay Weather Observation shared Snow Report SA's status.
 

17 July - The first report of snow is in from the Matroosberg Private Nature Reserve. It is snowing down at their reception, but is not building up at ground level as yet. There is bound to be more further up the mountain!

Veldfires: 

•  Most fires detected in 24 hours during this event in South Africa :  463
•  VWS Wildfires @vwsfires  ·  Jul 17  Sad news as #BettysBay #wildfire destroys two house overnight (via @news24) http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Fire-destroys-2-houses-in-Bettys-Bay-20140717 …

         Fire rages through Betty’s Bay - IOL

Betty's Bay Fire - 16 July · · Taken at Betty's Bay

On Wednesday night 12 hours of blazing fire was being spread by gale force winds. The fire started around 7pm and two houses have been claimed by the fire. Others have been seriously damaged.
http://whalecoastfm.co.za/buletins/latest-news/bettysbaai-brand
Photos by Melissa Jade Bradley.

More Images: https://www.facebook.com/ritme.overstrand/media_set?set=a.1460411657540944.1073741858.100007163711584&type=1

•  Suzanne Elizabeth Wille + Christine Webber -  Wildfire destroys 5 houses at Stone's Hill, Grahamstown.

Letaba Fire Protection Accociation -  An aerial photo taken by our Spotter Pilot, Siem Venter, of the fire up in Haenertsburg. 

More images: https://www.facebook.com/letabafire?fref=ts

Many other reports of fires received.  See our Facebook and Twitter Pages.

Rough Seas (4 - 6m today but increase to >9m along the EC Coast by late tomorrow and Saturday):

See video:  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=816546501697193


Possible storm damage:

Velf fires destroy grazing and houses
Wind damage trucks on the N3

Bergwind conditions ahead of the first cold front :

The high minimum temperatures that led to some record highs overnight, were a result of warming from a North Westerly flow of warm air from the interior.
These dry Berg winds warm the temperature up at approximately 3 degrees Celsius per 1000ft of descent from the escarpment to the coast.  More at Weather Guru:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Weather-Guru/192566374124112

Once again this cold front has shown that we should never underestimate the weather.  As I indicated before this event, there is always the possiblity of severe weather occurring during this event.

Finally: I would like to thank all the members of public, private sector, radio amateurs, the media and real time observers who send photos, information and reports about this event. With the information received we kept the public informed. I am overwhelmed by the response.

Once again thank you for the support and service. I am looking forward to your continued support. With your help we can render a free service to the public and hopefully contribute to save and better the lives of those in need.

Johan Terblanche
Founder: MSBWX, SAWXREP, SAWDOS, SAWDIS
Mossel Bay
20 July 2014

 

Snowfall: Matroosberg Mountains (10 - 11 May 2014)

 Image: Matroosberg Private Nature Reserve (Click on image for larger view.)

Image: NASA (Click on image for larger view.)

 
11/5/2014: Snowfall now confirmed on the Matroosberg mountains.  This was confirmed by the Matroosberg Private Nature Reserve and a Aqua Modis Satellite Image.

Final Update and Summary: Cold Front: Western-/Southern Cape 7 - 10 May 2014

Image: Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

This cold front looked very impressive just before it made landfall on the 8 May 2014. The pre-frontal thunderstorms turned into severe weather late Thursday (8/5/2014) afternoon bringing with it hail and strong wind.  Thankfully up to now there were no reports of any serious damage. The front moved eastwards and is now situated in the South Indian Ocean.

I will summarize a few events that were caused by this Cold Front/Upper Trough.  I will not go into detail as this blog, MSBWX Facebook and @SAWXREP (Twitter) contains most if not all of  the information.

1.  Localize flooding of roads in parts of the Cape Metropole. (8 + 9 May 2014)
2.  7 May 2014 - A Kalula plane diverted to Port Elizabeth to escape the gale force Berg wind in George.
3.  Gale force winds in the George area on 7/5/2014 caused damage to power lines, trees lost branches and buildings in George were damaged. No injuries were reported.
4.  Intense thunderstorms with hail and strong wind reported: George, Wilderness, Haarlem, Oudtshoorn and Port Elizabeth.  Thunderstorms  were observed in the Western-, Southern- and Eastern Cape during this event.
5.   The cold front brought heavy rain to the Cape Metropole while light rain were recorded in the Southern-, Northern and Eastern Cape.
6.  Snowreport SA indicated that light snow has fallen on the high peaks in the SW Cape.  This could however not be confirmed by SAWXREP with real time weather observations.  11/5/2014: Snowfall now confirmed on the Matroosberg mountains.  This was confirmed by the Matroosberg Private Nature Reserve and a Terra Satellite Image.
7.  The City of Cape Town Disaster Management was placed on high alert should any eventuality occur as a result of this weather system.
8.  SAWXREP issued a Flood Expected Observation for Cape Town at 20h00 SAST  on the 8/5/2014.  Flood levels decreased on the 9 May 2014.  No further flooding is currently expected.
9.  Rainfall of between 10 - 49mm were recorded in parts of the Western Cape while areas of the Northern Cape and Southern Cape measured between 1 - 10mm of rain.

There might even be more severe weather incidents but to date this is all that I have on record for the Western-,  Southern and Eastern Cape.  This weather system looked more intense on "paper" than the previous fronts but thankfully it did not cause serious damage or loss of life.

Once again thank you for the support and real time weather observations. I am looking forward to your continued support.

- MSBWX + SAWXREP

Final Update and Summary: Cold Front: 4 - 6 May 2014: Rain, Near Gale Force Wind and possible Snowfall expected.

Images: Eumetsat (Click on images for larger view.)

The front moved eastwards and is now situated in the South Indian Ocean.  However there is still a few reminiscence visible over parts of Kwazulu Natal.  In my previous post I commented:  "We might just be in for a real windy winter storm."  From reports received, this cold front resulted in a real windy winter storm in parts of the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Kwazulu Natal . Rainfall of between 5mm to 33mm was recorded in parts of the Western- and Eastern Cape.  No reports of any snowfalls have been received thus far. No reports of any damage has thus far been received.

I would once again like to thank all the members of public, private sector, radio amateurs, the media and real time observers who tweeted and forwarded information and reports about this event  Once again I was able to tweet and re-tweet reports and information to the general public.

Please keep on sending in reports via Twitter at @SAWXREP. With your help we can render a free information service to the public and hopefully contribute to save and better the lives of those in need during severe weather and disasters.

The next weather system to effect parts of the country is expected on the 8 May 2014 and can last up to the 10 May 2014.  Updates to follow.

- MSBWX + SAWXREP

Final Update and Summary: Cold Front/Cut-Off Low (21 - 24 April 2014): Severe Weather - Western Cape/Southern Cape/Eastern Cape - Heavy Rain and flooding.

Image: Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

This event is now something of the past. (hopefully) Once again this event started with an insignificant cold front and upper trough moving in over the Western Cape.  No early official warnings or a write-up was issued by the designated authorities.  This insignificant event turned into a severe weather event killing two people and leaving a trail of destruction in it's wake that will run into millions if not billions of rands of damage.  I will summarize a few "destructive events" that were caused by this Cold Front/Cut-Off Low.  I will not go into detail as this blog contains most if not all of  the information.

1.  Event started to unfold on the 22 April 2014 with a drastic change in the weather. Possibility of the development of a cut-off low along the Eastern Cape Coast.
2.  The cold front brought light rain to areas of the Southern Cape on the 22/4/2014 while heavy downpours, thunderstorms and intense lightning have been reported along the coastal areas of the Eastern Cape.
3.  A teenager was killed by lightning in Emandlutsha village in the Sholora administrative area in Elliotdale on the 22 April 2014 during a thunderstorm around 3pm.
4.  Hundreds of residents around Dutywa and Elliotdale had to scramble for shelter from the heavy downpours driven by gale force winds on Tuesday (22 April 2014) afternoon.
5.  In the disaster-prone Mbhashe local municipality a house was destroyed by fire and at least 30 cars were damaged in a trail of destruction left by a hailstorm. The storm, which struck around 3pm, destroyed windows in schools, government offices, cars and taxis.
6.  At the Govan Mbeki township near the Dutywa CBD, the corrugated iron roof of a row of four semidetached flats still under construction was blown off.
7.  In the Southern Cape heavy rainfall was observed at 02h00 on the 23/4/2014 and a flood observation report was issued at 02h10 as heavy rain continued to fall in the Mossel Bay area.
8.  42 mm of rain was recorded in Heiderand Mossel Bay up to 08h00 (23/4/2014) and it was still raining at that stage.   The total rainfall for Mossel Bay for this event is 70mm.
9.  Light to medium snowfall on the Drakensberg were reported by Snow Report SA and Afriski via Twitter on the 23/4/2014
10. 23/4/2014 - A fairly intense cut-off low system was developing along the Southern Cape coast. This was clearly visible on the latest satellite image.   We clearly had the "ingredients" for a cut-off low to dump heavy rain in areas of the Southern Cape and Eastern Cape.
11.   SAWXREP upgrade the Flood Expected Observation to a Flood Eminent Observation at 11h00 on the 23/4/2014
12.  Meanwhile it was still raining heavily in parts of the Southern Cape and Eastern Cape and flood levels were rising.
13.  Reports and images of heavy flooding in the East London area and localized flooding in the Port Elizabeth area were streaming in on Twitter and Facebook.
14.  Tragedy struck in East London when a five-year-old boy drowned while trying to cross a flooded pathway in Duncan Village on the 23/4/2014
15. Eden Disaster Management was on high alert following heavy rain in parts of the Southern Cape and possible flooding.
16. SAWXREP upgrade Flood Eminent Observation to a Flood Occurring Observation at 15h00 SAST  on the 23/4/2014
17.  Several road closures in Port Elizabeth and East London due to Flooding.
18.  Several vehicles stuck in water and several accidents reported in East London as a result flooding and rainy conditions.
19.  SAWXREP intruduced a new Flood Observation Code System. The following codes were created: FLOOD EXPECTED; FLOOD EMINENT; FLOOD OCCURRING and FLOOD LEVELS DECREASING. SAWXREP will use these codes to inform the public of rising water levels, flooding and flash flooding.
20.  Well over 100mm of rain were recorded in one day in areas of the Eastern Cape while 50mm and more in the Southern Cape.
21.  100's of people were left destitute after there homes were flooded.  Duncan Village in East London were the worst effected.  Disaster Management were busy making plans to accommodate destitude people in community centers. Localized flooding of houses, roads and sewerage systems.
22.  Rivers came down in flood while the Nahoon dam in East London were overflowing.
23.   There were a few new daily records (temperature and rainfall) set for the month of April. The Addo rainfall (57mm) is a 51 year record. Oudtshoorn reported a maximum of 13.2C, which is a 30 year record.  Mossel Bay rainfall (27.4mm) is a 5 year record. George (Witfontein) rainfall (47.4mm) a 6 year record.  More info available HERE.

There might even be more severe weather incidents but to date this is all that I have on record for the Western-,  Southern and Eastern Cape.  This "insignificant" weather system soon turned into severe weather  Looking at the events it is clear that this weather system was once again underestimated by many.

This event illustrated just how unpredictable cut-off low systems are and how destructive they can be.
Early warnings and press releases are crucial and once the "alarm" has been raised, we need to be prepared and ready for any eventuality.

The East London area should be declared a Disaster Area. Extensive damage were caused to property, infrastructure and roads.

Finally: I would like to thank all the members of public, private sector, radio amateurs, the media and real time observers who send photos, information and reports about this event. With the information received we kept the public informed. I am overwhelmed by the response.

Once again thank you for the support and service. I am looking forward to your continued support. With your help we can render a free service to the public and hopefully contribute to save and better the lives of those in need.

MSBWX would hereby like to express it's condolences and sympathy to all those families and friends who lost loved one's as a result of the severe weather this past few days.

Johan Terblanche
Founder: MSBWX, SAWXREP
Mossel Bay
25 April 2014