Thursday 24 July 2014

Approaching Cold Fronts: Western-, Northern-, Eastern-, and Southern Cape 24 - 27 July 2014

Predictions charts reflect two cold fronts and an upper air trough likely to impact the Western- ,  Northern-, Southern-  and Eastern Cape during the forecast period.  The first cold front is expected to make landfall later today (24 July 2014) while the second front should reach the country late on Saturday (26 July 2014).

The SAWS issued the following warnings:
  •  A gale force NW wind 35kt is expected in places between Table Bay and Cape Agulhas today (Thursday) moderating early Friday morning.
  • Heavy rain is expected at times mainly near the mountains of the southern parts of the WestCoast District, Cape Metropole, western parts of the Cape Winelands and Overberg district tonight (Thursday) persisting through to Saturday morning.
  •  Localized urban flooding is expected in the southern parts of the West Coast District, Cape Metropole, western parts of the Cape Winelands and Overberg district tonight (Thursday) persisting through Saturday.
  • Extremely high fire danger conditions can be expected in places over the Breede River Valley, Central and Little Karoo today. (Thursday). 
What can we expect from these cold fronts:

1.  Always the possibility of Severe Weather
2.  Moderate to heavy rain
3.  Strong to near gale force winds
4.  Possible Flooding
5.  Cold weather conditions
6.  Snowfalls over the high mountains
7.  Veld fires
8.  Rough Seas
9.  Possible storm damage


Image: Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

Severe Weather

This is a well developed  and intense weather system that is expected to bring-forth severe weather during the prescribed period.  The public are advised that the above conditions (1- 9)  can be expected and the necessary precautionary measures need to be taken by the public to minimize the impact of the storm and the subsidiary events.

Moderate to Heavy rain



Images: NCEP (Click on images for larger view.)

Moderate to heavy rain is expected in areas of the Western Cape.  Heavy rain is expected in Cape Town and surrounding areas, Overberg, Cape Winelands and West Coast.  Up to 50mm can be expected in these areas with moderate rain (1- 25mm) over other parts of the Western Cape, Northern Cape and Southern Cape.

Strong to Gale Force Winds

Strong to Gale Force (45 - 75 km/h) gusty North Westerly to Westerly winds can be expected along the West Coast, Western-, Southern and Eastern Cape coastline. Strong to Near Gale Force (35 - 80 km/h) gusty winds can also be expected over parts of the interior. Wind damage is possible in areas.






Images: Windguru and WeatherForecast.com (Click on images for larger view.)

Possible flooding

Localized flooding is expected in parts of the Cape, Overberg, Cape Winelands and West Coast. Flooding of road and informal settlements is expected in these areas up to Saturday. Flooding, blocked drains and service disruptions can be reported to the Cape Towns City’s Call Centre on 0860 103 089. The local authorities of other regions should be contacted if assistance is needed.   In the event of flooding do not try to cross flooded roads, ravines, rivers or streams.  Turn around....do not drown!!

Very cold conditions
Image:  WeatherForecast.com (Click on image for larger view.)

Very cold conditions (- to 0 Deg/C) is expected behind the cold front as cold air is  moving in over the Western-, Southern-, and Northern Cape.  Temperatures are expected to drop as the freezing levels lower to 1200 - 1500 meters. With enough moisture and dropping freezing levels snowfalls are expected over parts of the mountains in the Northern-, Western-, and Southern Cape.

Snowfall

Snow is expected over parts of the Northern-, Southern- and Western Cape mountains.  Snow Forecast  by Snow Report SA:  

"It still appears as if the snow fall will be confined to the western half of the country. Nothing for KZN in the latest forecast unfortunately. The cold front is due to make landfall in the WC late on Thursday night, and by Friday morning, we could experience snow falling on the extreme high peaks around Ceres, Worcester and Paarl. Light snow should start extending further inland in the NC regions around Sutherland and Calvinia and possibly just south of Springbok Friday night. Sutherland itself may experience a significant amount of snow from Friday afternoon into the evening. Light snow should continue falling throughout the day, and may extend up into the Cederberg right up to the Citrusdal area. The Swartberg mountain range is also likely to experience some snow at very high elevations Friday night or early hours of Saturday morning."

Image: Snow Report SA (Click on image for larger view.)

Raging Veld Fires

Poor to bad visibility can be expected as the risk for run-away veld fires increase with the high fire danger conditions in parts of the Western Cape (Breede River Valley, Cental and Little Karoo) and the interior.  232 fires were detected over the past 24 hours in South Africa.  This figure is expected to increase as strong to gale force winds precedes the cold front.  Please contact your nearest fire fighting unit, Working on Fire or Local Fire Fighting Service when fires are observed.  The earlier a fire is detected to better the chances of extinguishing the fire.

Rough seas

With all the above "ingredients" the sea is surely to be churned up.  Rough seas with wave heights of between 4 - 6 meters are expected along the coastal areas of the Northern Cape, Western Cape, Southern Cape and  Eastern Cape

Storm Damage

Storm damage is expected as a result of this intense cold front.  If  you observe any storm damage in your area, please forward details, images and description to  @SAWXREP  We need to keep the public informed at all times.

Finally:  As always do not underestimate any weather system.  MSBWX will monitor this front closely and will bring you updates as this system moves across the country. 

SAWXREP need your real time weather observations i.o.w. if you observe heavy rain, flooding, strong wind, rough seas, storm damage etc. Please inform the SAWXREP so that we in turn can keep the public informed. Tweet us at @SAWXREP or post on our Facebook timeline by clicking HERE. Do not assume that SAWXREP knows for certain that severe weather has occurred. Help us to spread the word about severe weather and NEVER assume that your weather observation report is not important.  SAWXREP would like to hear from you.

- MSBWX + SAWXREP