THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 42.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.9E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A 031222Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS COOL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE AFRICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
- JTWC
