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Very Intense TC HELLEN (21S) currently located near 14.7 S 44.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mayotte
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Comoros
probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
