122100Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH A TIGHTLY WRAPPED CORE. A 121749Z TRMM MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 121703Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A 40 TO 45 KNOT COMPACT CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOT WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ASCAT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST,
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS
COMBINED EFFECT WILL WEAKEN TC 14S AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 16 FEET.
- JTWC
