Update: Cold front and cut-off low could result in unseasonal weather for parts of the Western- and Southern Cape (4 - 9 January 2014)

 Image: SAT24 (Click on image for larger view.)

The latest prediction models indicate that heavy rain can still be expected over parts of the Western Cape, Southern Cape, West Coast and Central Karoo for the forecast period.  The Central Karoo is now added to other areas as the system is slowly moving eastwards. A report received earlier this afternoon indicated that heavy rain is falling in the Beaufort West and Laingsburg areas.  This is clearly reflected in the following two satellite image kindly provided by Wunderground.

The current system is far from dissipating and we might still see more heavy rain with flooding in areas. I would however like to reiterate that the amount of rain in a specific area as a result of a  cut-off low is difficult to predict. When an upper-level  low-pressure system becomes stuck in one place due to a lack of steering currents, it is known as being "cut off". The usual pattern which leads to this is the jet stream retreating, leaving the then cut-off system behind. Precisely this situation occurred with the Laingsburg Flood in 1981 when a cut-off-low system hovered over the Laingsburg region  and dumped an extraordinary amount of rain which caused the flood.

Here are a few of the highest rainfall figures for the Western- and Northern Cape ending 08h00 7 January 2014.

Sutherland 18
Beaufort West 31
Cape Point 31
Elgin 51
George 77
Laingsburg 30
Oudshoorn 28
Mossel Bay 34
Knysna 19

MSBWX once again request that members of the public be on high alert during the above period!!


Keep safe!!