Tropical Cyclone 15S continued to meander in the Mozambique Channel of the Indian Ocean when NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead and captured a picture of it. The storm's lack of direction is short-lived, however, as forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC expect that the storm will move in a southwesterly direction and landfall in west central Madagascar by March 9.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone 15S on March 5 at 11:25 UTC (6:25 a.m. EST) when it was hugging the coast of eastern Mozambique. The MODIS image showed that the bulk of clouds and rain were north and west of the center of circulation, extending over the Mozambique coastline, while the center of Tropical Cyclone 15S remained over the open waters of the Mozambique Channel.
On March 6 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST), Tropical Cyclone 15S was centered near 16.5 south latitude and 41.3 east longitude, about 349 nautical miles (401 miles/464 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Maximum sustained winds were still near 35 knots (40 mph/62 kph), but are expected to increase over the next two days as it moves away from Mozambique and into the open waters of the Mozambique Channel, toward Madagascar. At 1500 UTC, however, it was moving slowly at 2 knots (2.3 mph/3.7 kph) to the west-northwest.
Tropical Cyclone 15S is expected to make landfall in west central Madagascar's Tsingy de Bemaraha Strict Nature Reserve and move across the island nation in a southeasterly direction, with its center expected to pass just south of the capital city of Antananarivo before exiting the east coast early next week.
Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Mar, 2015 6:00 GMT (Final Warning)
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15S) currently located near 16.2 S 41.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mogincual (15.6 S, 40.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Angoche (16.2 S, 40.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
