290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH BROAD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 282348Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONTINUED TO BE
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET
BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
48, HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DUE TO A PREVIOUS OVER-ESTIMATION OF THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STR. DUE TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
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- JTWC
