Monday, 31 March 2014

South Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Mar, 2014 0:00 GMT


Very Intense TC HELLEN (21S) currently located near 15.3 S 45.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mayotte
        probability for TS is 35% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Images: SAT24 (Click on images for larger view.)