THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 52.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 49.4E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
SUSTAINING THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS SHOW MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
- JTWC
