Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 59.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042018Z TRMM 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 041717Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 30 TO 35 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 40 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSSEMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING A HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 041530Z FEB 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041530).// NNNN
- TropicalStormRisk + JTWC
