082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 72.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
081648Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONSOLIDATION ALTHOUGH THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BROKEN AND CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A CURRENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PROVIDING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING ONLY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC FOBANE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT IS BUILDING IN SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AS IT TURNS TC 14S BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY,
REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AS IF IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND IF IT OPENS DISTANCE IT COULD ALLOW FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
48, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A SLIGHT SPREAD
IN THE TRACKERS THROUGH THE TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 14 FEET.
- JTWC
