072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 69.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071709Z METOP-B COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 071711Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. BY TAU 48, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS FORECAST TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A RESTRICTS OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND A SLIGHT SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS IN THE EARLY TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 14 FEET.
FINAL WARNING: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 53.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM A NOW FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071751Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 14 FEET.
- JTWC
