192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 39.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPED INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
191534Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE IR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 15S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS
FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC GUITO IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. BY
TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 36, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS AREA, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN.
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET.
- JTWC
NOTE: Heavy rain and gale force winds can be expected along the coastal areas of Mozambique as the poleward outflow moves in over the coastal areas. Be aware of flooding in areas.
