132100Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 649 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, YET THE
CONVECTION REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 141726Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SURROUNDING DRY AIR ALMOST ENCLOSES THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND HELPING SUSTAIN
THE LINGERING CONVECTION. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST, AND SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER AN
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
24, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 12 FEET.
- JTWC
