112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 65.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION WANING, BUT REMAINING FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED. AN 111724Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
ONLY A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 170648
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND WELL-MAINTAINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
DESPITE A LOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMBINED EFFECT WILL WEAKEN TC 14 AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20
FEET.
- jtwc
