102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101745Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION, BUT TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 101648Z
ASCAT PASS, SHOWING 40 TO 45 KNOT WIND BARBS, AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 14S
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW, WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TC FOBANE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK AND GRADUALLY DECAY DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 20 FEET.
- JTWC
