092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 75.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 14S HAS BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AND TIGHTER WRAPPED DESPITE WANING CONVECTION DUE
TO INCREASING SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. A RECENT TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED IN SIZE AS IT CONSOLIDATED WHILE SEVERAL PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS FALLEN
APART IN THE LATEST TRMM IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE FAIRLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN THE IR LOOP
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND DEFLECT THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD. TC FOBANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72
BEFORE IT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 22 FEET.
- JTWC
