ABIO10 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/040300Z-041800ZFEB2014// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 130.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED FURTHER INLAND BUT HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE LLCC CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN A 032242Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK OVER, OR JUST SOUTH, OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 59.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 59.7E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE SYSTEM. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH, BUT MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARDS A POOL OF WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMIATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOUT THREE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM// NNNN
- JTWC
