THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 42.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 44.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOWING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 091800Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS FAIRLY DEFINED DESPITE A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED NEAR AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIMITING OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FURTHER DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
- JTWC
