Update: South Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT

Very Intense TC AMARA (03S) currently located near 19.1 S 64.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.


Very Intense TC AMARA: Current Data

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
20 Dec, 18:00	0 hrs	19.1 S	64.3 E	115 kts	4	Click Here	Click Here	Click Here

  FORECAST DATA

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
21 Dec, 6:00	12 hrs	19.8 S	64.1 E	105 kts	3	To 12 hrs	To 12 hrs	Click Here
21 Dec, 18:00	24 hrs	20.4 S	64.5 E	90 kts	2	To 24 hrs	To 24 hrs	Click Here
22 Dec, 6:00	36 hrs	20.7 S	64.9 E	75 kts	1	To 36 hrs	To 36 hrs	Click Here
22 Dec, 18:00	48 hrs	20.9 S	65.3 E	65 kts	1	To 48 hrs	To 48 hrs	Click Here
23 Dec, 18:00	72 hrs	21.1 S	65.6 E	50 kts	TS	To 72 hrs	To 72 hrs	N/A
24 Dec, 18:00	96 hrs	21.2 S	65.9 E	45 kts	TS	To 96 hrs	To 96 hrs	N/A
25 Dec, 18:00	120 hrs	21.3 S	66.2 E	35 kts	TS	To 120 hrs	To 120 hrs	N/A

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/