Intense Tropical Cyclone AMARA (03S) currently located near 18.0 S 66.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND SPIRALING OUT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191743Z AMSU-B REVEALS A WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL AND STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION INTO A TRANSITORY TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ONCE ROBUST EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS NOW WEAKENED AND IS PROBABLY THE MAIN FACTOR LIMITING ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO DEEP LAYER STRS. A SECOND, FASTER MOVING, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. THIS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN. BY TAU 96 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO STALL THE SYSTEM, POSSIBLY INTO A QUASI- STATIONARY STATE AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND MID- LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THEN, WHEN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN, THERE SHOULD BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD, BUT MOST INDICATE A STALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME INDICATING A RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO HAS EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND MUCH HINGES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO KEEP THE FOUR AND FIVE DAY POSITIONS VERY SLOW UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A MORE COHERENT SOLUTION. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO ALL THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FACTORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 30 FEET.
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