Very Intense TC BANSI (05S) currently located near 17.6 S 56.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 120600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 120900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S 38.9E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRADDLING THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE MSI AND A 121118Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEAL THE LLCC IS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT SPANS ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A 120653Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.// NNNN
Images and Info: TSR, JTWC, Eumetsat, SAT24 and NOAA (Click on images for larger view.)
