TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) HAS FORMED AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS.
BANSI Current Status: Current Wind Speed 80 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 120 knots / 138 MPH at Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 8:00 PM
BANSI Land Hazards: Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega /La Réunion
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 25- NM RAGGED EYE. TC 05S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 30 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. A 111611Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 05S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHIFTS EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05S SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE GENERAL TRACK, HOWEVER, GFDN AND EGRR DEPICT AN UNLIKELY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. IN DIRECT DISAGREEMENT, SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 111930Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD TRACK MOTION. AFTER TAU 36, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS SIMILAR TRACK MOTION AND SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. TC BANSI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (GREATER THAN 29C). AFTER TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.// NNNN
SAWXREP and MSBWX is also monitoring a tropical low for further development. Invest area 93S is currently situated in the Mozambique channel. (See image underneath)
Latest satellite image via SAT24 of both TC Bansi and the TLP 93S:
Observers need to keep a close eye on both these systems.
Images: JTWC, NOAA, CIMSS, SAT24, Cyclocane and Eumetsat
