UPDATE 2: Cold front and upper trough to move in over the Western and Southern Cape Period: 21-24 April 2014

Never a dull moment when you observe the weather.  Rapid changes in the past 12 hours.  Prediction models indicate that heavy rainfall of between 10 - 50mm can be expected today (evening) along parts of the Southern Cape coast while more that 50mm of rain is predicted for parts of the Eastern Cape by early Wednesday morning.  Forecast models indicate the Port Elizabeth can expect between 50 - 80 mm and East London between 40 - 60mm of rain the heaviest during Wednesday morning.  I am not that keen on weather predictions but rather prefer real time  weather observations.

NCEP GFS weekly total precipitation in mm

The above NAVGEM charts reflect the prediction of heavy rain. 

The latest weather satellite (SAT24) image this morning reflect a large cloud mass off-shore to the east of the country. This cloud mass is currently moving eastwards away from the land.

We however need to keep an eye on this cloud mass and the weather  for the next few days as there is still a possibility of the development of a cut-off low along the Eastern Cape Coast.  We therefor currently have a "cat and mouse" situation.  MSBWX will monitor this event as it should become clearer later today what we can really expect from this event.   Updates to follow.