Images: FNMOC (Click on images for larger view.)
The latest forecast models reflect the position of the upper air trough, and the formation of a moderate intensity cut-off low over the SW-Cape during the period 5-6 January 2014.
The cut-off low is projected to move slowly eastwards and deposit moderate amounts (25 - 45mm) of rain over parts of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. If the air pressure is low enough it can drop heavy amounts of rain of long periods which normally result in flash flooding.
Due to the irregular nature of a cut-off low, the exact characteristics are generally very difficult to predict.
Cut-off low pressure systems are common each year, but they tend to occur mostly during spring and autumn.
It is still to early to say for certain if the system will result in severe weather, however at this stage it appears that this is a moderate system that should be observed from the 4 - 8 January 2014.
MSBWX will bring you updates in this regard.
- MSBWX
