Monday 6 January 2014

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 5 Jan, 2014 052100Z Postition near 33.1S 44.7E.



052100Z POSITION NEAR 33.1S 44.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BEJISA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 664 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU 12. TC 06S IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH JET-STRENGTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100 NM, TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION. ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (22 TO 23C). TC 06S IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT NOT UNTIL THE 2- TO 3-DAY TIMEFRAME AS IT TRACKS AROUND 40 DEGREES LATITUDE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. -JTWC