Weather Satellite Images: 31 October 2013 14h30 + 15h29 SAST

(Click on images for larger view. - SAT24 + Weather Underground)

Mossel Bay Rainfall Data: Period: 30 - 31 October 2013 08h00 - 08h00 SAST

12mm of light rainfall recorded at Heiderand, Mossel Bay for the above period.

Mossel Bay Webcam Image: 31 October 2013 06h12 SAST - Avenues Guest House

This Webcam shows the view from the Mossel Bay Yacht and Boat Club in northerly direction, starting with Santos Beach on the left side, followed by Dias Beach, Hartenbos and Little Brak River with the Outeniqua Mountains in the background. The photo will automatically be updated after two minutes.

The camera is a MOBOTIX M24M Secure with a 90 degrees wide angle lens and a resolution of 3 Megapixel.

- Avenues Guest House  

1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Southern Cape/Garden Route Area - Weather-Forecast.com

Image: Mossel Bay Forecast - Weather Forecast.com

Mossel Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Thu night. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 16°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

George 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Thu night. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 16°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

Knysna 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Thu night. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 16°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

Plettenberg Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Thu night. Warm (max 20°C on Thu afternoon, min 16°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

Oudtshoorn 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Warm (max 23°C on Sat afternoon, min 15°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

Riversdale 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Thu night. Warm (max 22°C on Sat afternoon, min 16°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

- Weather-Forecast.com     

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 31 October 2013 04h00 SAST - SAWS

(Click on image for larger view. - SAWS)

Weather Satellite Images: 31 October 2013 05h00 + 05h55 SAST - Eumetsat + Weather Underground

(Click on images for larger view. - Eumetsat + Weather Underground)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: Southern Cape + Garden Route Areas - 1stweather.com

(Click on image for larger view. - 1stweather.com)

Dit hael in Mosselbaai!

MOSSELBAAI NUUS - Haelkorrels so groot soos gholfballe het gisteraand ongeveer 18:00 op Brandwag geval.

Hier baljaar Jordan en Aidan heerlik op hul kleinhoewe in Brandwag, sowat 10km buite Hartenbos op die R328.

Volgens Reel van der Merwe, was dit eers net klein korreltjies en "toe val dit laat dit klap!"

- Mossel Bay Advertiser

George Rainfall Figures: 1 - 30 October 2013

GEORGE NEWS - George and surrounding areas has had a wet October with 146 mm rain measured by the George Weather Bureau including 44 mm from 25 to 30 October.

The Touw River in Wilderness was breached on Friday by SANParks following the first bout of rain, and on Sunday the flow was still reasonably strong.

So far the weather prediction for the weekend is cloudy but dry.

- George Herald

Weather Satellite Images: Southern Cape/Garden Route Area - Eumetsat/Weather Underground

(Click on images for larger view. - Eumetsat/Weather Underground)

Get ready! Hybrid solar eclipse on 3 November 2013

Animation of 2013 November 3 solar eclipse. The large gray circle shows the area of the partial solar eclipse. The very small dark dot in the middle depicts the path of the total solar eclipse.

There is a special kind of solar eclipse coming up on Sunday, November 3, 2013. It’s a hybrid solar eclipse. That is, the eclipse appears fleetingly as an annular – or ring eclipse – at its start and becomes a brief total eclipse later on. But much of the world sees a partial eclipse. The eclipse will be visible from far-eastern North America, the Caribbean, northern South America, southern Greenland, the Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe, Africa, Madagascar and the Middle East. Keep in mind that you’ll absolutely need proper eye protection to watch this or any solar eclipse. Please use caution to prevent blindness or severe eye injury!

Read More HERE

- EarthSky

Mossel Bay Rainfall Data: Period: 29 - 30 October 2013 08h00 - 08h00 SAST

1mm of light rainfall recorded at Heiderand, Mossel Bay for the above period.

Update: Wet few days for the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area? (29/10/2013 - 2/11/2013)

 GFS Medium Range Forecasts of Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Charts - NCEP 

30 October 2013 08h00 - From the latest prediction charts it would appear that the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area can expect heavy rain this evening.  Heavy rain (19 - 46mm) is forecast along the Southern Cape coast  starting from this evening. MSBWX will keep a close watch on the weather for the next few days and will update this topic as and when necessary.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We describe and display the results from the forecast models of the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction. (NCEP) This guide is not meant to be a thorough and complete description, but to give an overview of the forecasts and their presentation. - MSBWX

George Airport Webcam Image: 30 October 2013 07h43 SAST - Intercity Charters

(Click on image for larger view. - Intercity Charters)

1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Southern Cape/Garden Route Area - Weather-Forecast.com

Image: Mossel Bay Forecast - Weather Forecast.com

Mossel Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 44mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

George 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 44mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Knysna 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Plettenberg Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. 

Oudtshoorn 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 36mm), heaviest during Wed night. Warm (max 20°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Riversdale 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 46mm), heaviest during Wed night. Warm (max 21°C on Thu afternoon, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

- Weather Forecast.com   

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 30 October 2013 04h00 SAST - SAWS

(Click on image for larger view. - SAWS)

Weather Satellite Images: 30 October 2013 07h00 + 06h00 SAST

(Click on images for larger view. - Eumetsat + Weather Underground)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: Southern Cape + Garden Route Areas - 1stweather.com

(Click on image for larger view. - 1stweather.com)

Latest Satellite Image of the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area (29 October 2013 08h34 SAST)

Image: Weather Underground.com (Click on image for larger view.)

Weather Satellite Images: 29 October 2013 17h30 + 16h00 SAST

Images: NRL + SAT24 (Click on images for larger view.)

18h30 Mossel Bay - Occasional thunder and lightning with light rain observed in Heiderand, Mossel Bay. - MSBWX

Helicopter crashes in Herold's Bay (29 October 2013)

GEORGE NEWS FLASH - A helicopter went down in Herold's Bay about an hour ago.

The pilot of the helicopter, a 22-year-old woman, was injured in the crash. She was transported to hospital with a head wound.

There were no other passengers on board.

View photos here.

- George Herald

Wet few days for the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area? (29/10/2013 - 2/11/2013) -

UPDATE: 20H00 SAST : Occasional thunder and lightning with light rain observed in Heiderand, Mossel Bay and over the Outeniqua Mountains.  

UPDATE 17h00 SAST: The weather changed literally from sunshine to overcast this afternoon. Rain expected in the next two hours. It is 8/8 overcast, 21 Deg/C, Wind light SW,  Dewpoint: 19 Deg/C, Humidity: 89%.


From the latest prediction charts it would appear that the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area can expect some rainy weather for the next few days.  Heavy rain (>25mm) is forecast along the Southern Cape coast  starting from this evening. MSBWX will keep a close watch on the weather for the next few days and will update this topic as and when necessary.

GFS Medium Range Forecasts of Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Charts - NCEP

Images: NCEP (Click on images for larger view.) 

IMPORTANT NOTE: We describe and display the results from the forecast models of the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction. (NCEP) This guide is not meant to be a thorough and complete description, but to give an overview of the forecasts and their presentation. - MSBWX

Plettenberg Bay Webcam (Garden Route): 29 October 2013 07h25 SAST

provided by showme.co.za

This webcam is overlooking Lookout Beach toward the entrance/exit of Keurboom's River lagoon.

1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Southern Cape/Garden Route Area - Weather-Forecast.com

Mossel Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 23°C on Tue morning, min 13°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, fresh winds from the SW by Thu night).

George 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 23°C on Tue morning, min 13°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, fresh winds from the SW by Thu night).

Knysna 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 23°C on Tue morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Plettenberg Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 23°C on Tue morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Oudtshoorn 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 28°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Riversdale 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Warm (max 30°C on Tue morning, min 25°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

- Weather-Forecast.com    

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 29 October 2013 04h00 SAST - SAWS

(Click on image for larger view. - SAWS)

Weather Satellite Images: 29 October 2013 06h00 + 05h45 SAST

(Click on images for larger view. - Eumetsat + SAT24)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: Southern Cape + Garden Route Areas - 1stweather.com

(Click on image for larger view. - 1stweather.com)

George Airport Webcam Image: 28 October 2013 08h28 SAST

(Click on image for larger view. - Intercity Charters)

NOTE:  Very foggy this morning in parts of the Southern Cape and Garden Route Area.  Please drive careful and increase you following distance.  Head lights on!

1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Southern Cape/Garden Route Area - Weather Forecast.com

Mossel Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 25°C on Mon afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

George 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 25°C on Mon afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Knysna 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 30mm), heaviest during Wed night. Warm (max 25°C on Mon morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Plettenberg Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 30mm), heaviest during Wed night. Warm (max 25°C on Mon morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Oudtshoorn 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 28°C on Mon afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Riversdale 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Warm (max 27°C on Mon afternoon, min 13°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

- Weather Forecast.com     

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 28 October 2013 04h00 SAST - SAWS

(Click on image for larger view. - SAWS)

Weather Satellite Image: 28 October 2013 07h00 SAST - Eumetsat

(Click on image for larger view. - Eumetsat)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: Southern Cape + Garden Route Areas - 1stweather.com

(Click on image for larger view. - 1stweather.com)

Oudshoorn ( Cango Caves) Webcam Image: 27 October 2013 08h10 SAST

- Intercity Charters

1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Southern Cape/Garden Route Area - Weather Forecast.com

Image: Mossel Bay Forecast - Weather-Forecast.com

Mossel Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 24°C on Mon afternoon, min 17°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

George 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 24°C on Mon afternoon, min 17°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Knysna 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 24°C on Sun afternoon, min 18°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Plettenberg Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 24°C on Sun afternoon, min 18°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Oudtshoorn 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 27°C on Tue afternoon, min 17°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Riversdale 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Warm (max 26°C on Sun afternoon, min 17°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

- Weather Forecast.com     

SA National Severe Weather Warnings: 27 October 2013 04h00 SAST - SAWS

(Click on image for larger view. - SAWS)

Weather Satellite Image: 27 October 2013 07h00 SAST - Eumetsat

(Click on image for larger view. - Eumetsat)

Possible 24 Hour Rainfall: Southern Cape + Garden Route Areas - 1stweather.com

(Click on image for larger view. - 1stweather.com)

The Effects of Space Weather on Aviation

Oct. 25, 2013:  The next time you step onto an airplane, consider the following:  In any given year, the pilot of your aircraft probably absorbs as much radiation as a worker in a nuclear power plant.

And you are about to follow him wherever he goes.

The FAA classifies pilots as "occupational radiation workers."  Flying high above Earth with little atmosphere to protect them, they can absorb significant doses of cosmic rays and solar radiation. During a typical polar flight from Chicago to Beijing, for instance, a pilot is exposed to the equivalent of two chest x-rays.  Multiplied over the course of a career, this can cause problems such as increased risk of cancer and possibly cataracts.

Passengers have reason to be concerned, too.

"A 100,000 mile frequent flyer gets about 20 chest x-rays," points out Chris Mertens, a senior research scientist at NASA Langley Research Center. "This is true regardless of the latitude of the flights."

It’s worth noting that even people on the ground absorb some radiation.  Cosmic rays and their by-products are so powerful, they can reach all the way down to Earth’s surface, giving a person at sea level the equivalent of one chest x-ray every 10 days or so.

On a plane, however, dose rates increase 10-fold or more.  The exposure depends on factors ranging from the altitude and latitude of the flight path (polar routes are irradiated most) to sunspot counts and solar activity (a powerful solar storm can boost radiation levels a hundredfold).  To help airline companies safeguard passengers and personnel, NASA is developing an experimental tool to predict exposures in real time.  Mertens is the PI of the system, called NAIRAS--short for "Nowcast of Atmosphere Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety."

A NAIRAS model shows radiation levels over the northern hemisphere on Oct. 25, 2013. More

Mertens notes that the number of flights over the poles has skyrocketed in recent years.  Airlines prefer polar routes for international travel because they are shorter and have reduced head winds, creating fuel savings of tens of thousands of dollars per flight.

However, Earth's poles are where the radiation problem can be most severe.  Our planet's magnetic field funnels cosmic rays and solar energetic particles over the very same latitudes where airlines want to fly.  On a typical day when the sun is quiet, dose rates for international flights over the poles are 3 to 5 times higher than domestic flights closer to the equator.

If a flight controller wants to know the situation around the poles right now, NAIRAS can help.  It is, essentially, an online global map of radiation dose rates for different flight paths and altitudes.  Maps are produced in near real-time by a computer at Langley, which combines cutting-edge physics codes with realtime measurements of solar activity and cosmic rays.

 “We are still in an experimental phase,” he says.  “The ultimate goal of the NAIRAS effort is to adopt a paradigm similar to terrestrial weather forecasting.”

The value to the airlines is clear.  The ability to fly over the poles can save $35,000 to $40,000 per flight in fuel costs alone.  On the other hand, altering course to avoid a polar radiation storm can cost as much as $100,000.   A forecasting tool like NAIRAS can help the airlines make the right decision.

Of even greater importance to Mertens is the human factor.  “Back in 2004, I went to a workshop on space weather and aviation. A pilot from American Airlines stood up to address the audience: ‘Look,’ he said, ‘we are classified as radiation workers, we are the most exposed than any other group, yet we know the least of all the groups.’  That was a turning point for me.  I wanted to do something to help pilots better understand what they are flying into.” And so NAIRAS was born.

Mertens and colleagues are about to publish a paper in the journal Space Weather comparing NAIRAS predictions to actual radiation measurements onboard airplanes.  “The results are encouraging,” he says, “but we still have work to do.”

Credits:
 Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Mossel Bay Rainfall Data: Period: 25 - 26 October 2013 08h00 - 08h00 SAST

12 mm of moderate rainfall recorded at Heiderand, Mossel Bay for the above period.